PNW sweet cherry forecast down 22.7 percent
RICHLAND, Wash. — The Pacific Northwest growers expect a 20.4 million-box sweet cherry crop this season. That’s down 22.7 percent from last year’s record 26.4 million, 20-pound boxes.
If weather allows high quality, it should mean higher prices than the dismal July returns last year when a glut caused wholesale prices to tumble below an unprofitable $16 per box.
A possible U.S.-China trade deal ending a 15 percent Chinese tariff on U.S. fruit would also be a big help, said B.J. Thurlby, president of Northwest Cherry Growers in Yakima. The PNW shipped 3.2 million boxes of cherries — 13 percent of its crop — to China last season, he said.
The tariff is on top of a 10 percent duty and a 13 percent value-added tax, he said. It’s already affected California shipments along with a shorter pest protocol quarantine, he said.
“I heard rumblings all weekend that the U.S. might end its steel and aluminum tariffs on China, and this wasn’t just the news but from importers in China,” Thurlby said.
The PNW cherry crop was forecast at 203,900 tons at the annual meeting of the Five State Cherry Commission in Richland, Wash., on May 16. Washington is forecast at 169,000 tons with 90,000 of that from the Wenatchee District and 79,000 from Yakima. Oregon is expected to produce 32,000 tons, Idaho and Montana 1,400 tons each and Utah 100 tons.
Harvest is expected to start about June 3 in Mattawa, Wash., and end in August in Wenatchee, Wash., or Hood River, Ore. Peaks are estimated on June 24 and July 16. The forecast is for 8 million boxes of cherries in June, 10 million to 11 million in July and 2 million in August.
Last year, June produced 7.7 million boxes. That followed three previous record-volume Junes of 12.3 million, 11.9 million and 9.9 million.
2017 values are not yet available, but Washington’s sweet cherry value of production in 2016 was $471 million, and the average price per 20-pound box was $28.10, according to the National Agricultural Statistic Service.
Oregon’s sweet cherry value of production in 2016 was $68.8 million, and its average price per 20-pound box was $16.70.
This spring cool, wet weather and an extended bloom hampered pollination and led to a lighter fruit set of early varieties in the southern half of Central Washington. Growers are concerned about the extent of fruit drop in early variety Chelan cherries right up to harvest, Thurlby said.
Potential harvest spread between Wapato in the Yakima Valley and Chelan, 150 miles to the north, is the best in 15 years, which should reduce pressure on sales, including during the Fourth of July period, he said.
Coming off a record 9.6 million 18-pound-box crop last season, California may not reach 3 million boxes this year because of insufficient winter chill, freeze damage and poor pollination. Picking began April 20 and may finish about June 8, just as Washington begins picking.
“A little gap is OK but when it’s too long with lose shelf space and we don’t want that,” Thurlby said.