Smaller apple crops elsewhere may benefit Washington marketers
YAKIMA, Wash. — Smaller apple crops elsewhere in the U.S. and in Mexico, Canada and Europe may help Washington marketers maintain sales and prices for the state’s huge crop this season.
The total 2017 U.S. apple crop is estimated at 248 million, 42-pound boxes, down 8 percent from last season.
The national forecast was released Aug. 25 by the U.S. Apple Association at its annual outlook conference in Chicago.
“All in all, people were optimistic the U.S. crop should allow for solid prices,” said Mike Preacher, director of marketing at Domex Superfresh Growers in Yakima, Wash. He attended the conference.
The global picture looks good for Washington apples but it’s too early to know how good, he said. Early Gala prices are solid, he said.
Desmond O’Rourke, apple market analyst and retired Washington State University ag economist, said it’s doubtful this season will be as good as 2012, but that it should be better than the 2016 season now ending.
Washington had a huge crop in 2012, when many other apple producers were down. It enabled Washington to sell record volumes at high prices.
O’Rourke said he sees the year-long average wholesale price of all varieties bouncing back up to $25 after being $22 this past season.
Red Delicious should climb back up to $20 from $15 and Gala should go from $21.50 to $22, he said. Generally, $17 to $18 is breakeven.
Michigan’s apple crop is forecast 27 percent down at 20.3 million boxes because of a late spring freeze.
“It’s an easier market for our guys to tap into because it’s closer than New York,” O’Rourke said.
New York is advancing strongly in fresh market with growing volumes of its new SnapDragon and RubyFrost varieties, developed by Cornell University and marketed by Crunch Time Marketing Group, he said.
Mexico’s crop is down 30 percent and is Washington’s largest export market. It should be an excellent opportunity this season, O’Rourke said.
“That all helps, but big crops are always tough,” said Andy Handley, a small grower in East Wenatchee, Wash.
There’s a lot of new production in Quincy and it’s hard to know how big it really is, Handley said, adding he suspects the crop maybe bigger than forecast.
Washington’s fresh crop is forecast at 130.9 million, 40-pound boxes. Its total fresh and processing crop is estimated at 159.5 million, 42-pound boxes, down 8 percent from 2016.
Other major state fresh and processing forecasts at the outlook conference: New York, 28 million, even with 2016; Michigan, 20.3 million, down 27 percent; and Pennsylvania, 11.2 million, up 6 percent.
The next tier in millions of boxes: Virginia, 5.2 million, up 22 percent; Oregon 4.1 million, down 10 percent; California, 5 million, down 16 percent; North Carolina, 2.3 million, down 7 percent; West Virginia, 2.3 million, up 21 percent; Idaho, 1.2 million, down 8 percent; and Ohio, 1.1 million, up 40 percent.
U.S. Apple Association’s national forecast of 248 million boxes is even with its five-year average. It’s 400,000 boxes less than a USDA estimate.
Mark Seetin, U.S. Apple’s director of regulatory and industry affairs, there’s real reason to be optimistic about the 2017 season given industry advancements of recent years. He listed the ability to effectively market larger crops, increased productivity, improved quality in storage, new varieties aimed at consumer preferences, innovative marketing and export prospects.
Apple production was 6 percent higher in 2016 than in 1995 but on 31 percent fewer acres, Seetin said. Yield per acre has increase 50 percent in the past 13 years, he said.
In 2016, 67 percent of the U.S. crop was fresh market and 33 percent processed versus 51 percent fresh and 49 percent processed in 1994, Seetin said. Fresh market growth is driving grower income, he said.
Total U.S. USDA apple farmgate value was $3.46 billion in 2016, up 3 percent from the previous year for a record. Even after adjusting the 1994 crop for inflation growers received 33 more from the similar sized 2016 crop, Seetin said.
Mark Boyer, a principal in Ridgetop Orchards, Fishertown, Pa., was elected chairman of the board at the U.S. Apple meeting. Kaari Stannard, president and owner of New York Apple Sales, Glenmont, N.Y., was elected vice chairman. Jeff Colombini, president of Lodi Farming, Stockton, Calif., was elected secretary; and John Graden, of Crunch Pak, Cashmere, Wash., was elected treasurer. Mike Wade, general manager of Columbia Fruit Packers, Wenatchee, is past chairman.