Another light Pacific Northwest pear crop predicted
PORTLAND — The Pacific Northwest pear crop will be later than last year — which is expected, given the cooler spring. But the puzzling aspect is that it’s lighter for the fourth year in a row.
“It may be good for grower returns and we will have enough pears. It’s not like a crop failure, but it’s a little disconcerting because until the record crop in 2013 we used to have ups and downs, the alternate bearing cycle,” said Kevin Moffitt, president of The Pear Bureau Northwest in Portland.
The Northwest’s fresh pear industry’s promotional arm forecast a 17.6 million, 44-pound box crop for 2017 at its June 1 annual meeting at Portland’s Embassy Suites Hotel.
That’s down 2 percent from 18 million boxes from the 2016 crop and down 10 percent from a five-year average of 19.6 million boxes.
“It’s puzzling. We’re not positive but we think it’s weather, hot summers causing more fruit drop than in the past,” Moffitt said.
Two days earlier in Brollier Key Orchard in Monitor, Wash., west of Wenatchee, Alex Sanchez and Gabby Cortez were thinning Starkrimson pears. The small, purple pears looked scarce enough on trees to maybe not need thinning.
Michael Key, the owner’s son, said d’Anjou is very thin.
“You shake the tree and it self thins. You wonder if you’ll have a crop left. We think it was the cold winter,” Key said.
“It’s been an earlier and bigger drop this year. We heard it’s mostly in the Wenatchee district,” Moffitt said, adding Yakima and Medford are also down and that only Hood River, also called Mid-Columbia, is above last year.
Bosc appears to be the variety hardest hit at 30 percent lower estimate than last year, he said.
There will be solid volumes for domestic sales and the key export markets of Mexico, Canada, India, China and United Arab Emirates, but overall exports will be no larger than from the 2016 crop, Moffitt said.
As of May 31, 4.1 million boxes of the 2016 crop had been exported, which was 12.5 percent below 2015, he said. Exports should finish the season in August at 4.4 million to 4.5 million boxes, he said.
Imports have been down slightly this spring because of a smaller Argentinian crop, which is good, he said.
While lighter, this year’s crop is later than normal, because of a cold winter and cool spring, following two years of warm springs and early pick starts.
Wenatchee and Hood River began picking Starkrimson on July 26 last year, both early records. This year harvest is forecast to start in Medford with Comice and Seckel on Aug. 2. The crop is 17 to 20 days later than last year for most varieties and about a week later than normal, Moffitt said.
California’s crop probably is later, too, but there’s been no estimate yet, he said.
The Pear Bureau renewed grower assessments at 38.5 cents per box for promotions, 3.1 cents for research and 3.3 cents for Pear Bureau administration and funding the Northwest Horticultural Council.
The preliminary domestic and foreign promotions budget will be about $6.4 million, down $1 million for the second year in a row because of smaller crops. With federal Market Access Program money it will be about $9 million.
The forecast of winter and summer-fall pears by district is: Wenatchee, 7.8 million boxes; Hood River, 7 million; Yakima, 1.9 million and Medford 890,500.
The forecast for all districts of top varieties by volume: 8.9 million boxes of d’Anjou; 4.4 million Green Bartlett; 2.2 million Bosc and 1 million Red d’ Anjou.
The 2016 crop was 91 percent shipped as of May 19 versus 95 percent a year earlier. A little over 1.5 million boxes remained to be sold versus 900,000 a year ago.
Domestic sales have been slow this year because of competition from the large apple crop and export sales have been slowed by the strong dollar and economic issues in other countries, Moffitt said.
Yakima and Wenatchee prices of d’Anjou were $23 to $27 per box for U.S. No. 1 grade, size 80s on May 31, the same as April 24 versus $26 to $30.90 a year earlier, according to USDA.
Bosc was $24 to $27 versus $26.50 to $28 on April 24 and was sold out a year earlier.