Forecasters say they are now confident that El Nino’s southern storms will boost rainfall this winter as far north as Sacramento in California, but the Pacific Northwest will likely be drier than normal.

Federal Climate Prediction Center officials said Sept. 10 there’s a 95 percent chance that strong El Nino conditions will persist through the winter before gradually weakening next spring.

During the winter, odds favor increased chances for above-normal precipitation across the southern part of the United States and up the East Coast, officials said.

But the inland Pacific Northwest should anticipate below-normal rainfall, while the Oregon and Washington coasts and much of Northern California have equal chances of above- or below-average precipitation, according to the CPC’s three-month winter outlook.

Temperatures throughout the West are expected to be higher than normal this winter, complicating chances for an abundant snowpack, according to the outlook.

“One thing to caution a little bit is that these are probabilistic forecasts,” Mike Halpert, the center’s deputy director, told reporters in a conference call. “We could be surprised.… There have been a couple of big El Ninos when I don’t think it was really dry anywhere across the country. Everywhere was above normal.

“But the most likely case (in the Northwest) is drier than average conditions,” he said.

El Nino is a warming of the ocean at the equator that interacts with the atmosphere, changing the jet stream that drives the winter storm track. There have been six previous El Nino periods since 1950, and this one has the potential to rate near the top in terms of strength.

Some scientists have characterized this El Nino as a “monster” or “Godzilla” storm track, predicting that it could produce the kind of wet winter that California saw in 1982-83 and 1997-98, when nearly double the state’s average precipitation fell.

However, Halpert said such descriptions are “not helpful” as state and federal officials have worked to tamp down expectations that this winter could end the drought. State Climatologist Michael Anderson reiterated Sept. 10 that past El Nino events have produced mixed results in Northern California, where key reservoirs are situated.

“The fact is that this coming winter could extend our record-dry weather or bring major storms, heavy precipitation and coastal storm surges or a combination of all,” Anderson said in a statement. “We must prepare by conserving water in our daily lives, as well as protecting property against the potential of heavy storms and local flooding.”

Though growers have held out hope that a wet winter will ease drought conditions, it would take as much as three times the average annual precipitation over the next year to make up the cumulative deficit of 71.5 inches of rainfall in the central Sierra Nevada since 2011, officials have said.

Still, a wet winter would be a big reprieve in the San Joaquin Valley, where growers denied their normal surface-water allocations have depleted aquifers to the point that the ground is sinking in many areas.

“As we enter a new water year on Oct. 1, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what that water year will bring,” said Kevin Werner, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s director of western regional climate services. “It’s entirely possible we could see continued drought across many areas of the West.”

THURSDAY, SEPT. 10

Unusually warm weather made for an early start to the wine grape harvest in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, and continued cool nights should assure quality is top notch, a research climatologist said.

Gregory Jones, a professor at Southern Oregon University who tracks the industry and specializes in how climate variability affects vine growth and wine production, said many growers are reporting the earliest harvest since 1992, or the earliest harvest ever at their vineyards.

Early ripening and sparkling wine varieties were the first picked, Jones said in an email newsletter he circulates to about 3,000 subscribers in the West.

“All other varieties are lining up for harvest but the recent shift to cool nights will allow for some timely queuing for flavors to develop,” Jones said in his Sept. 5 newsletter.

The unusually hot summer, of course, is the reason for an early harvest.

Average temperatures for August were one to four degrees above normal in California, Oregon, Washington and Idaho, Jones reported.

The increase in degree-day accumulation — the combination of heat and time required to complete a plant’s growth — was even more striking, especially in Oregon and Washington, Jones said.

Degree-day accumulation in both states as of Sept. 1 was 10 to 15 percent above 2014, another hot summer, and 30 to 35 percent higher than 1981 to 2010 averages, he said.

The arrival of cooler nights, if the pattern holds, can put a good finish on what appears to be another good grape crop.

“There are two things that help plants to start ripening, especially wine grapes,” Jones said. “Shorter days, and cool nights. That is an environmental cue to tell the plant, ‘We have to ripen this fall.’ ”

The same thing happens with tomatoes, which take on a deep red color as summer ebbs, he said.

“Those cooler nights tell them to do this soon or you’re not going to ripen,” Jones said.

Jones said vineyard managers face day to day harvest decisions in such conditions. “How long do they leave fruit out there to get the different flavors they want?” he said.

Jones agreed Oregon growers are optimistic at harvest time no matter the conditions.

“It’s kind of like in Bordeau, in France,” he said with a laugh. “It’s always the vintage of the century.”

LANGLOIS — A month-long silent auction fundraiser has begun at the Langlois Public Library. The auction will continue through Saturday, Sept. 12, until the annual Blueberry Bash. The Bash will start at 6 p.m. and the auction will end at…

LANGLOIS — A month-long silent auction fundraiser has begun at the Langlois Public Library. The auction will continue through Saturday, Sept. 12, until the annual Blueberry Bash. The Bash will…

The 10 percent boost in attendance at the Oregon nursery industry’s Farwest Show this year bodes well for ornamental plant sales, according to the event’s organizer.

More than 6,000 people attended the 2015 trade show, which seeks to connect wholesale producers of nursery stock with retailers and other buyers.

“I think it’s a further indicator the nursery industry is recovering,” said Jeff Stone, executive director of the Oregon Association of Nurseries, which organizes the annual event.

Last year, Oregon nursery sales grew 11 percent to $830 million, according to the Oregon Department of Agriculture.

Oregon’s favorable growing conditions have allowed the nursery industry to capitalize on increased demand, said Stone.

Nursery producers in the state also didn’t cut back on production as much as growers elsewhere, putting them in a better position as the economy improved, he said.

“Oregon product is moving. There are shortages in the marketplace,” said Stone.

Rising revenues are the result of larger consumption rather than increased prices, with demand growing due to the housing market’s recovery and greater yard investments by homeowners, he said.

The market is even on the upswing for the beleaguered shade tree sector, which was particularly hard hit when residential construction plummeted, he said.

The industry has generally become more flexible, with retailers repeatedly making orders throughout the year as their inventory decreases, rather than buying large amounts of stock at once, Stone said.

Nursery producers also re-oriented to focus on newly-popular products, such as food-producing trees, shrubs, perennials and annuals, he said.

“It’s about trying to anticipate that demand,” he said.

The Farwest Show remains an important financial component of the Oregon Association of Nurseries, which derives roughly one-third of its revenues from the annual event.

That’s down from about half of its revenues before the recession, as the association has diversified to include other sources of income, Stone said.

OAN tries not to be overly reliant on membership dues, keeping them at about one-third to one-fourth of its budget, he said. Instead, the group has begun offering more fee services, such as insurance and fuel programs.

While the Farwest Show is a major revenue stream, it’s also expensive to produce.

Not only does the event require a lot of staff time, but renting the Oregon Convention Center isn’t cheap, said Stone.

The location is great for OAN due to its ability to accommodate large events, he said. “Because of our size, we’re fairly limited on where we can go.”

MEDFORD, Ore. (AP) — The wait for In-N-Out Burger is over for Oregon residents.

The Mail Tribune reports that the In-N-Out chain has formally announced a Wednesday opening for its first restaurant in the state in Medford.

The store was to start serving at 9 a.m. after a ribbon-cutting ceremony.

City officials are preparing for increased traffic and waits of up to four-hours in the drive-thru and walk-in parts of the restaurant.

Those looking to sneak in early should be warned that the parking lot will be secured until the store opens.

After the opening, officials say the burger joint will be open from 10:30 a.m. to 1 a.m. Sunday through Thursday, and 10:30 a.m. to 1:30 a.m. Fridays and Saturdays.

Portland — If there were any doubt about the diverse faces of Oregon agriculture, consider this: More than 175 prospective farmers have signed up for a one-day Small Farm School offered by Oregon State University Extension.

The program, coordinated by OSU’s Center for Small Farms, takes place from 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 12 at Clackamas Community College in Oregon City, southeast of Portland. A couple events are at the Clackamas County Event Center in Canby.

Workshops include horse handling and emergency vet care, tractor safety, soil testing, beekeeping and small engine basics, blueberry production, dryland vegetable farming, pasture management and more.

On-line registration is open through Thursday, Sept. 10.

Oregon’s small farms, especially in or next to urban areas, have found a market niche with high-end restaurants, roadside stands, farmers markets and Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) subscription buyers. The state has more than 9,000 farms that are one to nine acres.

WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 9

JOSEPH, Ore. — A group of farmers and Washington State University researchers are studying whether quinoa, a grain traditionally grown in the South American Andes, can be a viable cash crop in the Northwest.

In 2014 Ted Golder of Seal Rock, Ore., came to Eastern Oregon on an exploratory mission. He thought the climate would be similar enough to the Andes to grow quinoa. In a local coffee shop he met Jerome Geortzen of Joseph, who was also on the same mission. Last summer the two started quinoa test plots in fields around the Wallowa Valley.

Golder said he first became interested in quinoa when it became popular in health food markets a few years ago.

“A nutritionist friend of mine in Eugene told me the climate and altitude in Wallowa County is not that different than some areas in South America. Then I learned through Washington State University we really do have one of the most optimum areas to potentially to grow it.”

Golder and Goertzen discovered Washington State had a team of researchers led by professor Kevin Murphy who are working with farmers all over the Northwest to grow different varieties of quinoa.

Last year Golder and Goertzen grew test crops at local farms. Using seed from last year’s crop and a variety from Colorado, this year they have 300 quinoa plants growing in seven rows near a conventional wheat field that Golder said are doing quite well.

In contrast, they have 16 rows of quinoa growing at Patrick Thiel’s Prairie Creek Farm outside of Joseph overseen by Washington State University researchers.

“Quinoa is a good fit with what I do,” Thiel said. “We’ve always grown specialized crops.”

Thiel’s farm is organic, which is more along the lines of what the researchers at Washington State have in mind, Golder said.

“It’s a good fit with WSU — they wanted their test plots grown organically,” Golder said.

Thiel said he was impressed with Washington State’s researchers when they came to lay out the test plots and outlined a uniform regiment for watering and weeding.

“They saw a value in doing a trial here. They get great research information while we keep it organic and grow it in a unique enough area,” Thiel said.

Farming is always a gamble. Golder said last year the weather was more consistent as was the crop.

This year a wet May stunted the growth of the newly planted starts. Thiel said quinoa is physiologically designed to come out of its seed in five days and puts down a taproot.

“If it’s overwatered they will stress and not survive,” Thiel said.

Rows were replanted, pushing out the harvest well into September, Golder said.

Not needing much water may be a major plus considering the extended drought in the West.

“Water is getting tighter every day,” Golder said.

Thiel said in South America quinoa is planted in a field and left until harvest.

“One of the things they liked about that crop is you leave it in an environment where it is doing well by itself,” Thiel said.

Golder said working with Washington State is important to help determine what traits farmers will want in their quinoa crop.

“Do they want it to be easily spotted from other similar plants like lamb’s quarter? Faster maturity?” he said. “The techniques we are using to grow quinoa will be repeated next year with a strategy. We are only half way there.”

Thiel said he couldn’t emphasize enough how important it is that Washington State is involved.

“They’ve worked with potatoes for more than 100 years. I see the same with the quinoa. They know how to do it,” Thiel said.

MURPHY, Ore. (AP) — Deer got the munchies at an industrial hemp crop in southern Oregon.

The deer got by barbed-wire fencing a couple weeks ago and went through the hemp plants like high-powered mowers, the Grants Pass Daily Courier reported.

“Generally, I don’t think they like cannabis. They liked ours, though,” said Cliff Thomason, a real estate agent who is the steward of the first industrial hemp crop in Oregon, which was planted near Murphy by Thomason and his partners with Orhempco.

The company planted roughly 1,000 plants in the section the deer got into, and Thomason said there are only about 40 left.

Industrial hemp has a low level of THC, the psychoactive property of marijuana. Kit Doyle, another partner in Orhemco, said it’s high in protein and that’s likely why the deer went on a binge.

Orhempco has several crops of industrial hemp — each planted at a different time and is in a different stage of maturity. Doyle said the group expects to have other plants go to harvest that will produce hemp seed for sale.

The land is owned by Josephine County Commissioner Cherryl Walker and her husband, Martin Hill. Fellow county Commissioner Simon Hare also is a partner.

Only some of the crop is protected by the tall fencing needed to thwart deer. Doyle said a reason some crops were left vulnerable was because of the uncertainty surrounding the program. A bill in the Oregon Legislature would have put Orhempco out of business had it passed the Senate.

“We wanted to hurry and get in the ground and we didn’t want to spend a lot of money,” Doyle said. “Next year, if we decide to grow in the same place, we will have the necessary infrastructure.”

ROSEBURG, Ore. (AP) — It’s been a smoky summer in Douglas County because of wildfires, and prescribed burns are about to add to the haze.

Farmers and ranchers use controlled burns to prepare their fields and pastures for the spring. The fires remove noxious weeds, brush, insects, and plant disease. They also reduce the buildup of flammable vegetation that can cause massive summer wildfires.

But the burns mean people will see more smoke. To lessen the impact, Kyle Reed of the Douglas Forest Protective Association says the burns are only allowed when conditions are favorable to keep smoke away from heavily populated areas.

To get a burn permit, landowners must prove they have the equipment and personnel to maintain control of the blaze. Fire trails are built around the burn site before the fire starts.

MONDAY, SEPT. 7

The “Timber Belt” running from Northern California up through Oregon and into Washington sustained an economic collapse and population loss similar to the “Rust Belt” and “Corn Belt” of the Midwest, but its recovery has been entirely different, according to the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis.

In a new report on demographic and economic trends unfolding in rural Oregon, state analysts detail pockets of resurgence, surprisingly hopeful statistics and unanswered questions of what comes next.

“All along the Timber Belt, people keep moving in” at a pace just as strong as the migration to urban centers such as Portland, state economists Mark McMullen and Joshua Lehner wrote.

“In general, these incoming migrants are different than the households moving out,” the analysts wrote. “Much of the time they are older and relocate to rural Oregon as they retire or reduce their work hours.”

The new residents of rural Oregon bring a “lifetime of experience” and wealth, “often in the form of California home equity,” McMullen and Lehner wrote.

“Figuring out how best to exploit the Timber Belt’s strong influx of retirees should be a top priority given such individuals are voting with their feet, in essence, saying they want to live in the area and be a part of the community,” the analysts said. “Overall this is certainly a good thing.”

Rural Oregon loses population during the “root setting” years of ages 25 to 34, when young adults are establishing careers, starting families and buying homes, the report said. Unlike most of rural America, however, Oregon is offsetting those losses with older migrants.

But for the young adults who stay in rural Oregon, McMullen and Lehner said statistics show children raised in rural Oregon, especially Eastern Oregon, have a good chance of succeeding in life.

Harvard University’s Equality of Opportunity Project found that a rural Oregon child born at the bottom income level had a strong probability of reaching the top level as an adult, the authors said. Among more than 700 communities nationwide, the Oregon towns of Burns, Condon, Enterprise, John Day and Lakeview were among the top third in fostering such success, according to McMullen and Lehner.

Bruce Weber, director of the Rural Studies Program at Oregon State University, said the state analysis is “insightful.”

If the “boom and bust” nature of rural economies “creates an environment in which children grow up with different expectations and different levels of investment in education, these could also reduce upward mobility,” Weber said in an email.

Meanwhile, economic recovery in Oregon has pockets of success and stagnation.

While Portland and its suburbs are popping again, most of rural Oregon has not recovered the jobs lost in the recession, the authors said. An exception is the Columbia River Gorge, which the analysts said has benefited from three major trends.

First, agriculture remains strong, mainly fruit, and higher commodity prices helped local farmers. Second, wind farm construction provided investment and jobs from 2007 to 2011, which included the depth of the recession. Last, the unmanned aerial vehicle industry — drones — has grown dramatically over the past decade. Insitu, a major drone manufacturer, is headquartered in Bingen, Wash., across the Columbia from Hood River.

“A large portion of such jobs are on the Washington side of the Columbia River, however the economic and population base in the gorge is on the Oregon side, where much of the consumer spending occurs,” McMullen and Lehner wrote.

Although not cited by name in the state report, Hermiston, in Umatilla County, rode out the recession to become the biggest and fastest growing city in Eastern Oregon.

In Hermiston’s case, a strong agricultural sector is a stabilizing base for the economy, City Manager Byron Smith said.

“However you want to phrase it, people still need to have food,” he said. “A lot of our economy is based on that, either the actual production or the processing of agricultural products.”

Hermiston farmers grow potatoes, onions, melons and multiple types of other irrigated vegetables. The area has several food processing plants, and attracted a DuPont Pioneer corn seed research station.

Finally, the city diversified its economy through growth in the transportation and logistics sector. Wal-Mart has a distribution center in Hermiston, and FedEx and UPS also have facilities in the area.

“That’s another piece of the economy that does well for us,” Smith said.

Online

See the Rural Oregon analysis at https://oregoneconomicanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/rural-oregon-2015.pdf

Oregon’s small urban farms have an out-sized place on the state’s agricultural landscape, but operators sometimes have trouble finding affordable implements that fit into tight spots and meet city sensibilities.

A Sept. 22 workshop at Oregon State University in Corvallis highlights tools specifically developed or revised for small-scale farms. The tools range from battery-powered tillers — with solar recharging panels — to hand carts with adjustable wheelbases that can expand or retract to match the width of crop rows.

The event includes an equipment showcase and demonstrations, a presentation on ergonomics, tool maintenance and sharpening and a panel discussion.

Businesses taking part include Green Heron Tools, Slow Hand Farm, BCS America, Johnny’s Tools, I Tech Designs and Carts & Tools. An OSU Small Farms Extension news release said people should bring in their hoes, pruners and blades for sharpening at $4 to $12 a tool.

Engineering students from OSU will attend and listen for senior project ideas.

Michael McGowen, whose Carts & Tools business in Corvallis was featured previously in the Capital Press, favors that sort of collaboration.

“I always felt like it was a good fit — agriculture and engineering,” he said. “OK, let’s get the two sides talking and working with each other.”

The event happens Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2015 from noon to 6 p.m. at the Oak Creek Center for Urban Horticulture, 844 SW 35th St., Corvallis.

Registration is $25. To register, or for more information, visit http://smallfarms.oregonstate.edu/smallequip or call the Benton County Extension office, 541-766-3556.

The 2012 Census of Agriculture counted 9,119 Oregon farms of one- to nine acres. Many small-scale farmers, especially new or beginning producers, either can’t afford standard or don’t need the size, fuel use and noise of standard farm equipment.

Funding for the workshop comes in part from the National Institutes of Food and Agriculture, under the Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Program.

COQUILLE — There are some very new faces at Coquille's football practices this fall.

COQUILLE — There are some very new faces at Coquille's football practices this fall.

BANDON — With the many changes it's undergone, it's time to take a fresh look at Coast Community Health Center.

BANDON — With the many changes it's undergone, it's time to take a fresh look at Coast Community Health Center. 

SALEM — Expansion plans at several Oregon dairies have caused a backlash among vegans and animal rights activists, but farm regulators lack the authority to consider many of their objections.

Likewise, the Oregon Department of Agriculture can’t do much about dairy industry concerns that publicly disclosed regulatory filings will expose farms to trespassing and vandalism.

As mandated by the federal Clean Water Act, the agency issued a public notice in June that five dairies are seeking to change their animal waste management plans.

Wym Matthews, manager of ODA’s Confined Animal Feeding Operation program, said such notices are fairly routine, but this one was somewhat unusual because four of the five dairies want to expand their herds.

After an article in Salem’s Statesman Journal described these plans, the agency received enough requests for a public hearing that one was scheduled for Sept. 2.

Previously, such hearing requests were rare, Matthews said. “I think the interest is new.”

Several of the people requesting a hearing identified themselves as vegan, he said.

The ODA can only consider comments that relate directly to whether the waste management changes conform with the Clean Water Act, not overall opposition to animal agriculture or CAFOs as being abusive, he said.

“The permit doesn’t regulate animal cruelty,” Matthews said.

The ODA also can’t consider comments that endorse particular management systems, such as organic or pasture-raised, he said.

Many of the comments made during the Sept. 2 hearing appeared to fall outside of the ODA’s purview, as they opposed CAFO expansion generally without identifying specific problems with the proposed waste management plans.

Some commenters mentioned antibiotics, which the agency does not regulate as a pollutant.

“They end up in the meat, in the manure and in the waterways,” said Niko Morozov, a college student.

Others objected to the amount of water used to produce milk, which also isn’t regulated under the Clean Water Act.

Nick Shipley, another college student, claimed dairy water use is excessive.

“Is milk really worth it?” he said.

The issue of animal welfare was also brought up.

“In an ideal world, we wouldn’t treat animals the way we do and have massive mega-farms,” said Laurel Hines. “My opposition is to the large farms, the farms that aren’t organic.”

Gavin Curtis expressed dismay with the practice of culling young calves for “bob veal.”

“These two- to three-day-old babies are torn from their mothers and then slaughtered,” he said.

During a July meeting of an advisory group for the CAFO program, some livestock industry representatives expressed worries that information contained in the waste management plans, such as the farm’s location and layout, will expose dairies to retaliation from activists.

Dairy and agriculture representatives later said a Statesman Journal article mischaracterized their comments as trying to hide information from the public.

Tami Kerr, executive director of the Oregon Dairy Farmers Association, said they were simply worried about private information being misused and not about the contents of the waste management plans becoming public.

“We were asking questions and expressing concern for our producers,” Kerr said. “We’re not trying to hide anything. I’m a big fan of transparency.”

While ODA can redact confidential business information — such as financial data or experimental water treatment systems with patents pending — the bulk of these plans must be publicly disclosed under the Clean Water Act, Matthews said.

“We’re required to by law,” he said.