PENDLETON, Ore. — Standing in a field of golden wheat that reached barely up to his knees, Joe Rietmann said this year’s abnormally short crop is clearly feeling the effects of drought.
“This is all typical drought stress,” said Rietmann, owner of JDR Farms in Ione. “If you look over the expanse of the field and see the darker areas, that’s where it’s stunted.”
Like most dryland farmers in Eastern Oregon, Rietmann expects the hot, dry weather will cut into his winter wheat harvest and lower yields by more than half in some areas. Ione’s precipitation is three inches below normal dating back to September 2014 — when winter wheat is usually planted — while weekend temperatures forecast well into the triple digits.
If it weren’t for about an inch of rain that fell in May, Rietmann said things would look even worse. As it is, he figures to harvest somewhere in the high-teens to mid-30s on bushels per acre, depending on the location of the field.
“In an agricultural endeavor, you just have to roll with it and stay in business,” he said.
This year actually marks the third straight year of below-average precipitation for the region’s wheat farmers after a solid season in 2012. That’s compounded the problem for growers like Rietmann who manage their fields in a wheat-fallow rotation to build up moisture deep in the soil.
Larry Lutcher, soil scientist with Oregon State University Extension Service in Morrow County, said the cumulation of three dry years in a row has left farmers with virtually no water left in storage. He predicted yields could be less than 10 bushels per acre on land that typically grows 35-40 bushels.
“Even with crop insurance, it gets difficult to make ends meet,” Lutcher said. “They’ll get by, but they certainly won’t make any money generating yields like this.”
Umatilla and Morrow counties rank first and second by a wide margin in Oregon wheat production. Last year, the two counties combined to harvest 17.8 million bushels of winter wheat on 357,000 acres, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service.
In 2012, the counties harvested 21.7 million bushels, thanks in part to higher rainfall. Precipitation in Ione averaged 12.23 inches between the months of September and June from 2010-2012, but just 7.5 inches from 2013-2015.
The timing of rains is also an important factor, said Jason Middleton, director of grain operations for Pendleton Grain Growers. Dryland farmers always need precipitation in May and June to finish a winter wheat crop, and precipitation has essentially shut off the past month, he said.
“I would expect (yields) to be down across the board this year,” Middleton said.
Lower yields means more farmers could fall back on crop insurance to make them whole. Debbie Morrison, an agent with Wheatland Insurance in Pendleton, said she expects a lot of claims in the coming weeks.
“I don’t think we’ll have the high yields we were looking for,” Morrison said. “As soon as they start harvesting, they’ll call me and tell me if they’re light.”
Crop insurance provides coverage based on a field’s production over the past 10 years, marking a guaranteed value that can be set either to yield or revenue. If harvest comes in below the guarantee, insurance pays the rest.
Farmers can only insure up to 85 percent of their crop, and the higher the percentage, the higher the premium, Morrison said.
Don Wysocki, soil scientist with OSU Extension in Umatilla County, said this is the kind of year crop insurance is designed to protect. He said the best farmers can do now is hope for a burst of rain in August or September, which will allow for earlier planting of next year’s crop.
“An inch of rain in early September would do a lot of good,” Wysocki said. “Yield expectations would be better if you can plant during the optimal time period.”
Early rains also allow farmers to spray for grassy weeds, such as cheatgrass and feral rye, before planting, which saves money on specialized herbicides they would otherwise have to use to kill the weeds while sparing wheat.
Growers certainly don’t enjoy the dry years, Rietmann said, but they always plan for difficult conditions and aren’t surprised when they happen. Dry periods are normal for the area, he said, and conditions always turn back around.
“There are worse things in life than a dry crop year,” Rietmann said. “This is just part of farming ... I suspect somewhere on the other end of this, it will pick back up again.”