Large, quality spuds in short supply despite higher yields
Potato yields increased throughout the Northwest and nationwide in the fall of 2014, according to a recent USDA report, but industry sources say strengthening fresh carton prices reflect a shortage of large, quality spuds.
Idaho’s yields, at 425 hundredweight per acre, were up 10 hundredweight from last year, and the state’s total production rose 2 percent to 134.2 million hundredweight, according to the report.
Washington’s yields, estimated at 605 hundredweight per acre, were up 5 hundredweight from last season, and the state’s total production rose 4 percent to 99.8 million hundredweight.
Oregon’s yields were up 40 hundredweight per acre to 585 hundredweight, and its total production of more than 22.8 million hundredweight was up 6 percent. U.S. yields were up 14 hundredweight per acre at 439 hundredweight, with total production up 3 percent at 406 million hundredweight.
Industry sources say strong fresh carton demand and flat prices of consumer bags evidence that the 2014 crop size profile is skewed toward smaller tubers.
“The (market) is telling you there aren’t many big potatoes,” said University of Idaho Extension economist Paul Patterson.
USDA estimates Idaho’s percentage of 4- to 6-ounce spuds rose 4.7 percent to 27.2 percent in the 2014 crop profile, and the percentage of spuds in the largest size category was down 5.3 percent at 9.4 percent.
According to USDA Market News, the price of five, 10-pound film bags of smaller, consumer-sized Russet Burbanks has remained flat in the Twin Falls and Burley District at $4.50 to $5. However, the price of a 70-count carton of larger Burbanks has risen from $8-$9 since USDA began tracking sales of the variety on Oct. 4 to $11-$12 on Nov. 8. Carton sizes are based on the number of potatoes needed to reach 50 pounds.
Potandon Produce in Idaho Falls has been receiving calls from buyers who aren’t normally Potandon customers seeking fresh cartons, said Ralph Schwartz, vice president of sales, marketing and innovation.
“We’re seeing a lot of smaller potatoes from a sales perspective,” Schwartz said. “We’ve probably been oversold on the larger-count bakers every single day for three to four weeks.”
Oakley, Idaho, farmer Randy Hardy, chairman of Sun Valley Potatoes, has also noticed rising demand for larger spuds, and he’s unconvinced that USDA’s estimates of significantly higher Idaho yields are accurate.
“It’s certainly not what I’m hearing from other growers and what I saw myself,” Hardy said.
Hardy believes a crop that started with a large set of tubers per plant, was stymied from bulking by wet August weather.
“We’re more optimistic than we were a few months ago,” Hardy said. “Mother Nature dealt us a blow with this weather in August, but maybe it was a blessing in that we don’t have a huge crop to deal with.”
He emphasized grower returns on cartons have risen $6 in recent months and the Thanksgiving rush is “always a good time to market potatoes.”
Dan Hargraves, executive director of Southern Idaho Potato Cooperative, is also skeptical of the USDA yield estimates.
“I think it’s way high,” Hargraves said.